Picking A Winner
Unfortunately there is no exact science in picking which horse will win a race, and you will find that everyone at the races has their own opinion as to who they think pass the post first.
However, the following pointers should help steer you in the right direction:
The Form
In a nutshell, this means how well has the horse been performing recently? It is usually best practise to select a horse that has good form (i.e. has finished in the first four in some of its previous starts). You will find each horse's form in the racebook and beneath it, a short sentence describing how an industry expert expects the horse to run.
The Race Distance
Look for a horse that has been running well over the same (or simliar) distance to what it's running in on the day. While many horses will build up to a longer distance race, be wary of anything that has raced over radically different distances in a short space of time.
The Course
There is an element of truth in the old adage that there are horses for courses. Some do run better at certain locations, or racing a certain way around the track (Ellerslie races clockwise, whereas some other tracks race anti-clockwise). So make sure you look out for those horses who have raced well at Ellerslie!
The Track Conditions (aka The Going)
On raceday, the track's ground conditions will be measured and then classified as either fast (dry) good, dead, slow or heavy (very wet). While there are some horses that will run just as well on a fast track as they do on a heavy, many others have a preference. Again, make sure you look out for those horses who have previously performed well on the current track conditions.
The Weight
In order to ensure each horse has a fair chance of winning a race, each runner is handicapped via a weight system (total combined weight of the jockey and saddle). Obviously, the more weight a horse has to carry, the harder it will be for it to win. An issue of weight is not about the amount a horse has to carry, but how much it is conceding to other horses in the race.
The Trainer
Racing at Ellerslie is highly competitive with some of New Zealand's best trainers bringing their horses to Auckland to compete for the high stakes on offer - thus making races that much harder to win. You might find that some trainers are course specialists with a high strike rate at various tracks, so make sure to bear that in mind.
The Jockey
Like any sporting athlete, success brings confidence which in return, can lead to greater success. Jockeys are no different - a confident jockey will motivate a horse, and should they be riding well, often get the rides on better horses. Keep an eye out for jockeys who have been riding well throughout the season or who have scored a few wins on the day - that extra bit of confidence could be the difference between a win and a place.
The Experts
Inside the race book at the top of each race you will see that three racing experts have selected the names of the three horses they favour the most to win and/or be placed. There's nothing wrong with taking their opinion on board!
The Horse
Finally, we get to what the horse actually looks like on the day! Good things to look out for is a horse that is calm, alert and walking with a purposeful stride. You want to ensure the horse has a smooth shiny coat and looks to have good muscle definition. Steer away from a nervous, misbehaved (kicking out, ears flat back against its head) horse that can't relax and is sweating profusely. Likewise, avoid anything with a dull coat, lack of muscle definition and no purpose to its stride.
When the horses canter down to the start check that your chosen horse is moving well and looks comfortable. Even if you are a beginner, you should still be able to tell if a horse looks uncomfortable with the track conditions or jockey.
Got your winner sorted? Great! Now it's time to head to the totes and place your bet!
